RAPID GROWTH WITHIN THE STELLE GROUP

 

 

THE PROBLEM AND THE SOLUTION

 

I see a problem within The Stelle Group. The problem is a lack of rapid growth. At our present rate of growth we will not have enough people or resources to survive the economic depression. Yet, the Brotherhoods have said Stelle will be 10,000 strong and it will survive, We have five years or so left until the de­pression, and if we are to do what the Brotherhoods say can and will be done, we will need large quantities of people and money.

 

The problem is, how do we get them? Simple—we plan for them. But you may say we have been planning for them all along. Haven’t we been eagerly anticipating that first check for a million dollars that will really get things rolling? Haven’t we all gone to the PARMCAMSG meetings wishing for a dozen or more new members each month? Those are both nice dreams and the basic substance of all great plans. But we are still dreaming and wishing while time passes on. You say we are in the process of securing loans and foundation grants. Fine, but do we know just how much capital expense money it will take over the next five years to build Stelle? $1,000,000? $100,000,000? $1,000,000,000? You say we have already started a factory, an apartment building in the works, and a fantastic way of amassing thousands of dollars by using a new farming method. Fine, but where does that put us one year from today? Most likely, with housing for 100-150 people and hopefully enough paying jobs to go around.

 

The Stelle Group has gained a net average of eleven new members annually over the past nine years. Yet, if we expect to have 10,000 residents by the time the depression hits in the mid-seventies, we will have to grow approximately 200 times faster than our present rate of growth! That means one year from today we will have to be housing 445 residents. The next year would see an increase of 545, totaling 990 residents. The third year would require 1,483 more, totaling 2,475. By the fourth year, 3,195 residents would be added, totaling 5,670. And in the fifth and final year, an additional 4,455 would bring the total population in Stelle to 10,125 residents. See the chart below.

 

 

 

 

Using the growth pattern already outlined, we can begin to project the number of applications we will process, the number of interviews we will conduct, and the number of members we will accept on an annual basis. Add to that the amount of time, people, and money it will take for all of these operations and you will be­gin to see what is required just to assimilate new members. There are more things to consider beyond that. New members will require orientation classes, homes, jobs, schools, utility and municipal services, health services, business goods and services, and cultural and recreational facilities. Again, using our growth pat­tern, we can establish the annual resources required to provide for all of these things.

 

At the same time, these new members will be bringing essential skills with them into Stelle. Yet, of what value will they be If we do not have an established plan of matching Stelle projects to available skills and vice versa? There is a vast difference between assessing presently just one new member’s skills each month vs. doing it for 41 new members each month (based on the projected first year’s growth).

 

Hopefully at this point, you can appreciate the enormity of our task. Our dream has now taken on some realistic aspects. Ten thousand people divided by five years averages out to 2,000 new members a year. Or, on a sliding scale, it means acquiring 445 members the first year and ten times that amount in the fifth year. That is a realistic calculation of our projected population growth. And with it, we can project and plan all of the attendant human and financial resources requir­ed to achieve that growth.

 

The time to begin that planning is now. Why? It is my firm belief that only when we have planned in great detail for rapid growth in all areas will the Brother­hoods channel large quantities of people and money to assist The Stelle Group in fulfilling this phase of Their Great Plan.

 

Let me explain why. First, we really can’t seek out new members. They must seek us out and that requires the assistance of the Brotherhoods:

 

“Dr. White smiled and quickly added, “Let me forewarn you to figure enough expansion room for accommodating a city of at least a quarter million persons, The community is likely t~ become the second largest city in Illinois, When it starts growing, its increase will be phenomenal because the Brothers will pour thousands of persons into it as quickly as the new members can be assimilated. The problems of expansion must be solved by you and your council, and in so doing you will prepare yourselves for the subsequent building of the Kingdom of God’s initial city in the Pacific Ocean, This second city shall be named after the City of Brotherly Love.”

 

Also, there is a limit as to how much money we can personally contribute to Stelle, so again we have to rely on the Brotherhoods:

 

   “When you mention prosperity, it reminds me of a question that’s been bothering me,” Richard said. “Where is the money coming from to build the city you speak of?

  “One day you will see whence it shall come, but let it suffice for me to say that it shall flow to you in amazing amounts when the time has come to build the city. The money will come from your own pockets and from the thousands of people coming into the city and also from philanthropies, legacies, and spontaneous donations. None of it, however, will come from the Brother­hoods, The people must build the city themselves and govern it themselves—that is the way they will learn best. The Brothers will give advice to help you over the rough spots if you have exhausted all your own knowledge and effort upon a problem without arriving at a solution.”

 

The Brotherhoods have said that it is up to us to build Stelle. We have to do the building, yet that cannot be accomplished without adequate planning. We have to process the applications and interview prospective members, yet how can we do it on such a rapid scale if we don’t plan for it? We can’t expect to have thousands of people come in contact with THE ULTIMATE FRONTIER if it has only a limit­ed distribution. And we can’t distribute it widely if we haven’t planned for processing book orders on a rapid basis. If we started receiving large quantities of book orders and large quantities of membership applications on a continuing basis, it would probably require a major shift of our manpower and economic allo­cations to accommodate the workload. Add to that the resultingly large influx of new members, the need for immediate utilization of their skills and the necessary orientation to keep the Group running smoothly. I do not honestly believe that we could handle such a situation using our present methods.

 

I credit the Brotherhoods for being able to perceive such a dilemma and consequently refrain from pouring large quantities of prospective members into the Group until we can more readily assimilate them. And rightfully so, no amount of money that They could channel to us would solve this problem. For receiving “amazing amounts” of money now should indicate to us that we have done everything essential towards building the city and that it is time to begin. I believe the opposite is true. We have yet to demonstrate to the Brotherhoods, through a com­prehensive plan of growth, our ability to administer the large quantities of human and financial resources essential to building Stelle. We have not planned for, nor implemented a plan for rapid growth, yet I believe it is the only logical and practical way we can build Stelle with the speed and quality envisioned by the Brotherhoods. Just as a Master must envision each individual atom comprising a chair before he can successfully precipitate it into reality, we too must plan for each integral part that will comprise the city of Stelle before it can become a reality. We must plan for everything essential for rapid growth to a point just short of actually having the manpower and money to implement those plans. At that point, the Brotherhoods should recognize our viable plan and begin to channel the large quantities of people and money into the Group to implement the plan.

POPULATION GROWTH MODEL

 

How do we plan for rapid growth within The Stelle Group? First, we need to de­sign a population growth model based on statistics from our past nine years of growth. From it, we can plan the necessary growth in any given area and subsequently determine the number of people and amount of money required to perform that particular operation. The model will also allow us to determine whe­ther we need to make minor changes now instead of having to make costly and time consuming major changes in succeeding years. For example, we have already pro­jected how many new members we will have to assimilate during the next five years. Since our present plans require each new member to participate in a six-month orientation course, we can begin to determine the actual resources necessary to conduct the course. Let’s assume that the course takes 1 1/2 hours every other week and the class size is limited to ten students. Since we will assimilate an aver­age of 9.5 members each week during the first year, we will have to plan on start­ing an average of one new orientation class weekly until we reach a maximum of 26 classes. At that point, one of the 26 classes will be graduating as another new class is started.

 

The classes could be scheduled different ways by varying the number of instructors, classrooms, and the number of classes held simultaneously. We could make a decis­ion at this point as to which way of scheduling would be best, taking into consid­eration the availability of classroom facilities and trained instructors. However, designing a plan for rapid growth requires basing decisions on a total understand­ing of how each operation will mesh into the next from year-to-year with a minimal need for major changes. Consequently, in order to decide which orientation class schedule would work best during the first year, we first have to project the re­maining four years. Using the same student/class ratio in comparison with the population growth model, the average number of classes during a two-week period would be 26 the second year, 78 the third, 182 the fourth, and 260 classes during the fifth year.

 

At this point, we can see that what starts out as a simple class conducted twice daily will eventually become a large-sized educational operation, being Len times larger in the fifth year than during the first year. The decisions concerning initial scheduling for one classroom and one part-time instructor ultimately will involve a potential for ten classrooms and ten or more full-time instructors. On the basis of the projections, we can begin to determine the actual yearly resour­ces and costs for conducting the orientation classes.

 

We may want to consider the manner in which the classes are conducted. By comparing the present seminar format with the various yearly number of classes, we can determine if any format changes are necessary. It is far better to foresee and plan needed changes than to find out two years too late that we have been using an obsolete system.

 

Another important consideration is the ability to initiate additional classes as necessary. For example, according to our projected growth (and in respect to our present capabilities), how soon do we have to start training additional instructors? Before we can begin that, how soon do we have to implement an instructor training program? How long will it take to train each instructor? Should in­structors be part-time volunteer workers or full-time paid employees of The Stelle Group?

These and many other questions have to be asked and answered before we can actually make a final decision on planning for the first year of orientation class­es. Yet, by using the population growth model, we can make educated and realistic estimates in our planning. The same technique can be utilized in practically every planning area. Without the model, we can hardly ask the right questions, let alone work out the right answers.

 

Another aspect of the model is that as the growth actually occurs, it can be compared to the original model. If planning estimates do not agree with the actual growth, then the model--and consequently the planning--can be modified accordingly. As the model becomes more in line with what is actually happening, so does the planning.

 

RAPID ASSIMILATION OF NEW MEMBERS

 

On the basis of our population growth model, we know that we will have to accept a certain number of members each year in order to acquire 10,000 residents with­in five years. We also know from past experience that not every person who reads THE ULTIMATE FRONTIER applies for membership. Not everyone who applies is interviewed; not everyone who is interviewed is accepted. And not everyone who is accepted stays in the Group. Consequently, we will have to accept more members than what we will eventually have, We will have to interview more people than what we will accept. We will have to receive more applications than the number of people we will interview, and we will have to sell more books than the number of applications we will receive, We can already determine what the percentages of each has been over the past nine years by looking at our records. For example, how many books did we have to sell in order to acquire our present 100 members? How many applications did we receive, how many interviews did we conduct, etc?

 

For purposes of discussion, let’s assume that out of all the applications we receive, 50% of them will result in interviews. And 50% of those interviewed will be accepted, with 10% of those eventually dropping out of the Group. By relating these percentages to our population growth model, we can determine the actual num­ber of people for each category, See the chart below.

 

With this information we can begin to plan the resources necessary to assimilate 10,000 members over a five year period, We will have to determine the manpower and facilities required to rapidly sell and process orders for THE ULTIMATE FRON­TIER. We will have to determine the manpower and facilities required for produ­cing and distributing over 45,000 “Stelle, A City For Tomorrow” brochures with membership application forms. We will also have to determine the manpower and resources for processing 45,000 applications and scheduling, conducting, and mak­ing a disposition on 22,500 interviews. Then we will have to determine the man­power and facilities to process 11,250 new members and at that point, we mesh into our plans for orientation classes.

 

Planning the manpower and facilities requires determining all of the jobs and work tools required to accomplish a particular operation before starting any actual work. For example, how many books will have to be packed and shipped each week? Where will it be done? Will transportation to a Post Office be required? How many people will it require? Will the people require work tables, desks, or both? What supplies will they need? Will all of the operations be done manually or will some special equipment be required? What records will be kept? How will they be kept? What amount of supervision will be required? When will the book have to be re-ordered from the printer? In what quantity? How rapidly can operations be ex­panded? Are present operations conducive to rapid expansion or will major changes be required?

 

It is essential that each operation be planned in great detail so that rapid growth can occur without having to stop and make major changes. The more adequately we plan, the easier and more rapidly we can grow.

 

 

 

 

RAPID UTILIZATION OF NEW MEMBERS

 

Once we start receiving all of these new members, what are we going to do with them? It is essential that they begin to earn a livelihood in the city, and it is equally important that the work of The Stelle Group continue. Consequently, we need to plan all of the projects (for the Group, the Municipality, the industries, etc.) essential to developing to a city of 10,000 residents. Then we need to determine the vocational requirements for completing each of the projects. By comparing a new member’s vocational capabilities with current or impending project requirements, the new member can be advised of available work requiring his skills. At the same time, the projects can be assessed to determine if there is sufficient skilled manpower to complete them or whether people will have to be trained or the project done by an outside jobber or contractor.

 

Some of the projects will be directly involved in expanding the physical facilities of the city. In order to plan for rapid city expansion, we must take into consid­eration how each operation will work in relation to all other operations. For ex­ample, to plan for housing we also have to plan for streets, utilities, landscaping, transportation and distribution systems, municipal services, etc. By using the population growth model, we can determine the extent of planning required for each operation. But we still have to plan each operation to mesh into the other. The ultimate result is a happy, well-planned community that is growing rapidly, accord­ing to schedule, and with a minimum of the usual growing problems.

 

SUMMARY

 

We do not have a viable plan for growing to 10,000 members by the mid—seventies. We have not seen “thousands of persons” poured into our Group, nor have we seen “amazing amounts” of money flow to us. Presumably, we have not been given these gifts because we have not prepared ourselves for their use. We now have a choice to continue growing as we have in the past or to achieve the rapid growth that the Brotherhoods say we can accomplish. If we continue as we have in the past, there is little hope of succeeding. We can succeed by embracing a plan that leads the way to building a city and ultimately a new Civilization. Our decisions and our actions now may well determine to a great extent the future course of Mankind. I am confident that The Stelle Group can deal with this problem and achieve a solution that will enable us to build our city. The solution that I perceive and that is presented here may or may not be the final answer. I offer it for your consideration and welcome further discussion about it.

 

Lee Whitten

 

July 8, 1972

 

 

 

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